Sclerite7AM Profit Brief™Fictional company · simulated evidence · illustrative findings Return to overview

Complete simulation / SCL–7PB–0017

Profit leak & acquisition decision

Should Northline Home Services increase advertising to restore growth?

Fictional businessNorthline Home ServicesEvidence windowJan–Jun 2026Decision horizon30 daysIssued07:00 / simulation

SIMULATED
PROFIT BRIEFNot a customer result

Modeled monthly contribution lift$5,420Base case · before tax

Primary leak locationQuote → closeNot top-of-funnel volume

Decision confidence82%Conditional on stated assumptions

Recommended test20 quotesBefore more acquisition spend

Executive answer

Do not increase advertising yet.

Hold lead volume constant for 30 days. Replace the discount-led quote with a three-level value architecture and a consistent quote protocol. The evidence indicates that demand is reaching the business, but offer uncertainty and uncontrolled discounting are suppressing realized contribution after qualification.

FIRST MOVERun the new offer on 20 qualified quotes before releasing another acquisition dollar.

Evaluation record

See how the conclusion was built.

5 evidence groups · 4 evaluation methods

METHOD 01 / FUNNEL DECOMPOSITION

The leak begins after qualification.

Lead volume remained broadly stable. Close rate and realized price declined after the discount-led offer became the default quote.

90-day funnel comparisonIndexed to qualified opportunities

Qualified100

Quoted82

Closed46

Retained 14d43

The largest addressable drop occurs between quote and close. Adding leads feeds the same loss point.

Uncontrolled discounts–$2,180/moObserved realized-price gap

Offer ambiguity–$2,360/moModeled from close-rate delta

Cancellation friction–$640/mo14-day avoidable loss

Addressable leak$5,180/moDirectional, not additive certainty

Cohort comparison Contribution bridge Funnel decomposition Cancellation check

30-Day Recovery Plan™

A sequenced test—not a pile of recommendations.

Each phase produces evidence required by the next. Scaling is conditional, not automatic.

01DAY 01–03

Instrument

Freeze the current lead mix. Add quote-version and objection fields to the pipeline export.

Clean baseline

02DAY 04–07

Build

Convert the discount-led offer into three value anchors with explicit scope and tradeoffs.

Test-ready offer

03DAY 08–14

Pilot

Use the new structure on 20 qualified opportunities without changing ad spend.

Comparable cohort

04DAY 15–21

Challenge

Compare close rate, realized price, cycle time, and cancellation rate against baseline.

Go / revise signal

05DAY 22–30

Scale

Roll out only if contribution clears the $3,200 monthly floor and guardrails remain intact.

Controlled release

Limits & review triggers

A good brief shows where it could be wrong.

Pricing elasticity is inferred. No controlled price test exists in the fictional record.
Public competitor pricing is incomplete. Visible entry prices may exclude common add-ons.
Seasonality is only partially controlled. The six-month window does not cover a full annual cycle.
Update trigger: rerun the decision after 20 comparable quotes or any 15% lead-mix shift.

This was the simulation.

Your brief starts with your evidence.

Bring the numbers, the documents, the contradictions, and the decision that matters.

Open a private briefing room